Every year, Japanese baseball players come to the United States to play in the MLB. In recent years, the most notable Japanese players who have come to the MLB have been: Mega-star, 3-time MLB MVP Shohei Ohtani, starting pitcher and designated hitter for the Dodgers, starting pitcher Kodai Senga of the Mets, left fielder Masataka Yoshida of the Red Sox, starting pitcher Shota Imananga of the Cubs, and notable starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who signed with the Dodgers on a record-breaking twelve year, $325 million deal. Some may argue that the highlight of this year’s crop of Japanese stars is 23 year old starting pitcher, Roki Sasaki. Sasaki throws a fastball that exceeds 100 MPH which he pairs up with a 92 MPH splitter. Both pitches are off the charts, in terms of their grading and projections, and are incredibly high for this young pitcher. However, Sasaki’s contract situation is different than the other players mentioned due to how long he has been in the NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball).
Sasaki highlights this year’s Japanese free agent class with his nearly unhittable pitch arsenal. His stats back up his talent as he has a career 29-15 record with a 2.10 ERA and 394.2 innings pitched over four seasons in the NPB. In the NPB, he’s been an all star twice and even pitched a perfect game; a feat that has only been achieved twenty-five times in the MLB including just twice in the past twelve years, all at only twenty-three years old. His age makes him highly appealing to any MLB club because Japanese free agents are at least 25 and usually older. This rarity makes him a one of a kind free agent that teams are especially interested in. The only other player of his stature to come over at this age? A man named Shohei Ohtani.
How Does His Contract Work?
It is important to note that because of his age and his four years of playing in the NPB, he has different rules than previous Japanese free agents, so what are these rules? Once a player turns 25, their team is able to post them and they can go through free agency. This process is similar to a normal free agent from the MLB, however, the NPB team that posted them gets paid by the MLB team that signs them. The amount they get paid depends on the contract; for example, if the contract is $25 million or less, the NPB team gets 20%. The full breakdown of the rules are below if you would like to learn more.
For this reason, NPB teams like to post their players before they have played nine seasons so they get that cut. Once a player plays 9 seasons they are a free agent and the team gets no cut. This explains why the Orix Buffaloes posted Yoshinobu Yamamoto right when he turned twenty-five as his market was high, and they would get a huge payout based on the percentage of the salary he makes. However, if a player wants to be posted before twenty-five like Sasaki, they will have to enter the 2025 international amateur free agency class. This means that each team, depending on how good they are, gets a certain amount of money between $4.6 million to $7.1 million that can be spent on international free agents. The worse teams have more money and better teams have less. In this system all players, including Sasaki can only sign a rookie contract that lasts, at most, six years and starts at just $700,000. However, Sasaki will receive a signing bonus likely equivalent to the international bonus pool money available to the team that signs him. This amount could range between the $4.6 million and $7.1 million range, as previously mentioned, depending on the team—an incredible value. This includes three years at minimum and an additional three arbitration years. The window teams have to sign him is forty-five days after December 10th, the date he was posted, this means that his deadline to sign is January 24th.
Who Will Sign Him?
From the moment it was announced that Sasaki was getting posted, many suspected he was going to be a Dodger. Coming off a world series win, the Dodgers already had two Japanese stars in their rotation with Ohtani and Yamamoto. Now that it has been some time since the announcement of his posting, going to the Dodgers wasn’t so obvious anymore. During the winter meetings, Sasaki’s agent, Joel Wolfe, was interviewed and when he was asked about small market teams, he said that “there’s an argument to be made that a smaller mid-market team might be more beneficial for [Sasaki,]” and added that in Japan, Sasaki did not have an “enjoyable experience with the media”. These comments led many to believe that the Dodgers are not Sasaki’s favorite. This is because the Dodgers are a huge market, just won the World Series, and are in a very busy city with significant media pressure which doesn’t fit in the criteria Wolfe mentioned. While the Dodgers still have great odds to land Sasaki, this comment has brought other teams into the mix, with the most notable being the San Diego Padres. This makes a lot of sense; for starters it is also on the West Coast which is something that Japanese players find more preferable. Additionally, while San Diego is a good team, they are also way a smaller market than the Dodgers, their market isn’t very small but it may be an easier one for Sasaki. Additionally, the Padres also have a Japanese veteran in thirty-eight year old Yu Darvish who could really help Sasaki with the pressure of playing in the MLB. In the winter interview, Joel Wolfe was asked if Sasaki and Darvish’s relationship could be beneficial? Wolfe responded to this question with, “I assume [the Padres] would be a team that he would really consider. His relationship with Darvish is a private matter.” This doesn’t confirm anything but it suggests that the Dodgers aren’t alone, and Sasaki could very well be a Padre. This also tells us that his free agency is being kept secret which means we could be in for a lot of surprises. Outside of that, the Cubs, Giants and Rangers seem to be the next biggest threats with all having an in person meeting with him. While every team is interested, as it stands for now these teams have the best chances. Unless we get some new information, it’s unlikely he goes anywhere but these five teams.
